SUDBURY - With pollsters forecasting a photo finish between Liberal candidate Glenn Thibeault and the NDP's Suzanne Shawbonquit, the leader of every major party in Ontario will be in Sudbury tonight as one of the most tumultuous election campaigns in the city's history comes to an end.
The last poll ahead of tonight's vote put Shawbonquit ahead of Thibeault by three percentage points, 36-33 per cent. The Forum Research poll was conducted Monday, and asked 469 residents who they were most likely to vote for. The findings are considered accurate within five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Forum President Lorne Bozinoff said in a news release the results are consistent with surveys the company conducted in January and December, showing the Liberal and NDP candidates in a statistical tie.
“This race has been tied up since it began, and all we can say is it will be a later night than usual on Thursday,” said Bozinoff.
The Forum poll was conducted on the same day as a survey by Mainstreet Technologies, which had the Liberals ahead 32 per cent to 28 per cent. It was the largest poll taken during the campaign, with 882 respondents and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.38 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
“Thursday’s byelection comes down to the wire, but Glen Thibeault continues to lead,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Technologies, in a news release. “With most undecided respondents also indicating they are unlikely to vote, it leaves little room for growth. This race will be won on turnout and with a record number of voters casting their ballots at the advance poll, it’s clear there’s a lot of interest in this race.”
The key tonight will be which campaign does a better job getting the vote out, he said.
“Thibeault’s lead increases slightly among those certain to vote (or who already voted), that’s a good sign for his campaign,” he said. “But there is the potential for an upset.”
While issues such as a PET scanner for the city and completing the four-laning of Highway 69 have been discussed, the dominant narrative of the campaign has been Thibeault's defection from the federal NDP to run as a provincial Liberal.
Not only did that outrage New Democrats, but former Liberal candidate Andrew Olivier revealed top Liberals tried to convince him to quit the race and back Thibeault. He released recordings of Liberal fundraiser Gerry Lougheed Jr. and Liberal campaign director Pat Sorbara to back up his claims. Lougheed can be heard saying the party wants to offer him a job or an appointment, and Sorbara mentions an appointment or a job working in the constituency office.
A quadriplegic, Olivier routinely records his conversations because he can't take notes. While many have wondered why he didn't release his recording of his conversation with Premier Kathleen Wynne, Olivier confirmed this week there was no such recording, because the premier's call came when he wasn't prepared to record it.
Elections Ontario and the OPP's anti-rackets branch are investigating the allegations as possible breaches of Ontario's Elections Act, which prohibits offering inducements to someone not to run for a political office. Olivier said Thursday he couldn't talk about his conversation with Wynne until after both organizations were done interviewing him about the case.
After wresting the seat from the Liberals in the June election, the NDP has gone all out in trying to retain the seat after Joe Cimino's surprise resignation in November. But their candidate, Shawbonquit, is a political newcomer and has struggled at times to demonstrate a grasp of the issues, instead focusing on attacking Thibeault's credibility.
Party Leader Andrew Horwath has been in Sudbury numerous times since the byelection was called, along with several MPPs. Federal Leader Thomas Mulcair, as well as Mike Layton – son of former leader Jack Layton – has been here as well, hammering home the point that Thibeault left the party because he saw an opportunity to serve in government, rather than simmering issues with Mulcair's leadership in the wake of Jack Layton's death.
Olivier launched an independent bid to win the seat he came so close to winning in June, and polls have him running third, ahead of Progressive Conservative candidate Paula Peroni and Green Party candidate David Robinson.
The byelection has attracted a total of 10 candidates, including perennial hopefuls Ed Pokonzie and David Popsecu, as well as the colourful John Turmel, who has lost a record 85 elections and is in line for No. 86. Jean-Raymond Audet and John Waddell round out the large slate of candidates.
Polls are open until 9 p.m. tonight.
