You know the old joke, right? Of course you do. Two guys are in the woods getting chased by a bear and one of them says to the other, "What, you think you can outrun a bear?" And the other guy says, "I don't need to outrun the bear. I just need to outrun you."
It's a dark joke, if you think much about it. How do you live with that, you know?
Life is, in part, about assessing risk and upside. The Toronto Raptors arrived at this trade deadline second in the Eastern Conference by a fair and comfortable margin, winners of 14 of 16 games and trailing a Cleveland team with a new coach, some finicky chemistry and a fading star. This team has never been closer to seriousness. Low bar, but still.
And then the deadline came and the Raptors, like most of the league, didn't do anything. No stab at glory, no pricey rental, nothing. If this was the moment, it went unseized.
"Yeah, you play with that in your mind a little bit, but I just don't think we're there yet, as a team, as a ball club," said Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri, after the deadline had passed. "We've got some good momentum coming in here, but we're a good team in the East, and we want to keep plugging along and figure out the playoffs. But if you want to make that big jump it means that you're going to have to give up something. And one, there was no deal that came to us in that category. And secondly, it would be tough to mortgage our future."
The future is a nebulous thing: It was three years ago that Ujiri's Denver Nuggets were winning 57 games, and now the thing's a disaster. These Raptors are on pace for 55 wins, but DeMar DeRozan is a free agent, and Kyle Lowry will be a 31-year-old freeagent next year, and this core will be expensive, and limited, if this is all it is. The future can be built, or fall apart, fast.
And right now, there is no magical power forward coming: no Al Horford, who was expensive, a pending free agent, and more of a centre. No Ryan Anderson, who was expensive, a pending free agent, and not a defender. No Pau Gasol - he was in the Horford categories, but taller. No Taj Gibson, no Thaddeus Young. The Raptors clearly felt the prices weren't acceptable, and the upgrades that were available were insufficient. That fancy Knicks-Nuggets first-rounder stays in the bag, for now, saved for the summer.
So, here they are. DeMarre Carroll may come back healthy from knee surgery, and maybe he'll even find a fit. But these are your Raptors, more or less.
Now, you can say this is a risk for Ujiri. You can say that this was a great chance to do real damage, to jump in should LeBron James falter, in a year where Canada's NHL teams won't be in the playoffs. Sure.
But it's not a risk for Ujiri, not really. It's a risk for Dwane Casey, sure. He is currently coaching this team to its three best regular seasons in franchise history, but if this team falls in the first round, he will be the most expendable piece. And it means pressure on the core, to not be the collapsing embarrassment they were last season.
Because the teams below the Raptors aren't scared of them. Boston didn't go in on a big deal. Atlanta didn't sell, and neither did Chicago. The Indiana Pacers, the Detroit Pistons, the Washington Wizards, the Charlotte Hornets, the Orlando Magic - they all know they aren't winning a title this year, but they think that in this East, there is one big dog, if that. Or rather, there's one bear in the forest, and maybe it can be had.
And Ujiri knows. He doesn't believe this team is close enough to mortgage the future for the now, and he's right. You can't bank on these Raptors, despite all the good times - despite the top-10 defence, the top-six offence, the improved depth, the regular-season fun. This franchise has never won a seven-game series. This core was humiliated by an unexceptional Washington team last season. Ujiri still thinks about that, and says he's just getting over the four-game sweep now. He even regrets swearing in the square during that year - you know, when Paul Pierce said the Raptors don't have ëit,' and he blurted out, "We don't give a s--- about it!' " It eats at him.
So, it's up to the Raptors, now. In an interview before the all-star break, Ujiri assessed his team this way: "We want more. We're hungry. The regular season is the regular season at the end of the day, and we have to play at the highest level that we can, and you have to hope for the best in what comes next, is the best way I can put it."
So that's what it is: Prove it. Prove you can beat whatever dangerous mediocrity surfaces in the first round, prove you can play with Brad Stevens' Boston whiz kids or whatever else in the second round, prove it. Decide what you are. Ujiri could have gambled on this team, burned some future, bet on his men, and in a way he did. Either you outrun the other suckers in the woods, or they outrun you.
